Airline Performance During Upcoming Holiday Season
Understanding performance metrics like flight cancellation rates and on-time performance of flights are crucial. These indicators not only reflect the operational efficiency of airlines but also significantly impact passenger satisfaction.
Today, we dive into what is the forecasts of flight cancellation by airline for May'24 to July'24 period considered one of the peak holiday season and we will try to provide some picture of what air traveler might expect in this period.
In the winter season, weather is the primary cause of travel disruptions. However, during this period, weather usually does not impact air travel. Therefore, airlines often have better control over their flight schedules.
Let's see how they will perform in next three months.
Definition:
Cancellation Rate - This is the data of cancelled flight by each airlines against their scheduled/Operated flights.
Data Source
The data analyzed in this study is sourced from Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), covering the first six months of 2023 and first three month of 2024.
Analysis of Flight Cancellation Rate
We took the data of first 6 months of 2023 and basis that, build the projection for May-June-July of 2024.
| Months | IndiGo | SpiceJet | Air India express | Air India | Vistara | Akasa | ||||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Jan | 2.09% | 5.00% | 0.71% | 3.48% | 0.33% | 1.24% | 0.46% | 2.06% | 0.62% | 0.86% | 0.08% | 0.17% |
| Feb | 0.19% | 0.84% | 0.59% | 1.54% | 0.10% | 0.64% | 0.09% | 0.62% | 0.10% | 0.58% | 0.04% | 0.30% |
| Mar | 0.29% | 0.84% | 0.22% | 0.99% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 1.56% | 0.01% | 0.10% |
| Apr | 0.17% | 0.49% | 0.56% | 2.52% | 0.10% | 2.23% | 1.00% | 1.80% | 0.04% | 0.69% | 0.02% | 0.20% |
| May | 0.31% | 0.90% | 0.52% | 2.34% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.87% | 0.01% | 0.10% |
| Jun | 0.42% | 1.22% | 0.44% | 1.98% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 1.42% | 2.56% | 0.03% | 0.52% | 0.01% | 0.20% |
| Jul | 0.41% | 1.19% | 1.31% | 5.90% | 1.31% | 1.56% | 1.04% | 1.87% | 0.16% | 2.77% | 0.30% | 3.00% |
The cancellation % for Jan-April 2024 are actuals.
Observations:
- The percentage of total flights scheduled each month that is anticipated to be cancelled by each airline is marked in red.
- Akasa is anticipated to have lowest percentage of their flight being cancelled and Spicejet has highest.
- Indigo is anticipated to have the lowest cancellation of their flight in the month of July.
Every carrier out there has a chance of flight cancellations, so it's smart to always have a Plan B. Remember, if your flight gets cancelled by the airline, they're usually liable to refund your full ticket price. But here’s the catch—last-minute fares can sometimes be more than double what you originally paid!
Consider booking tickets on multiple flights. It might sound pricey, but look into ancillary products from travel agencies that protect you against cancellation fees.
If you’re feeling extra cautious, why not book a train ticket as a backup? It’s always good to have options, right?
Safe travels! 🚆✈️
Jai Hind!
Want to learn about Suraksha - our cancellation protection program - Keep Watching
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